Today I will show you this calculation that shows you the chances of scattering into an obstacle when deepstriking. I was actually surprised how safe deepstriking is. This, combined with the newer mishap table means that deepstriking isn't all that bad. And at the end of the article I show you my new method of deep striking into dense terrain based off these calculations. More below...
First thing's first. Here is the link to download my Mathhammer Calculator which allows you to calculate the chances of getting a mishap when deep striking near any sized obstacle.
So we put 7 into the calculator and look at the chance of a mishap vs. distance to the obstacle. (Remember that you aren't allowed to move within 1 inch of an enemy, so 5 inches from the obstacle is actually 6 inches from the unit.) So if we place our deep strikers 1 inch away from the unit which is as close as we can get, there is only a 33% chance that you will scatter into that unit (2/3 chance to roll a scatter, and half of the time you roll a scatter it will be in the direction of the enemy). As you move further away, there is less of a chance that you will scatter into the obstacle.
So to simplify this a bit lets look at the average distance to the obstacles if we place our deep striker directly in the center. Since it's 6 inches from each obstacle we know the average is 6 inches. So if we assume each obstacle (including the enemy unit) is 7 inches wide and sum up the chances of a mishap that we are given in the first table we get a total chance of a mishap of 4*6.5%=26%. Now lets look at an alternative placement.
Now lets estimate our risk of getting a mishap for this model by summing up the chances of mishaps from each obstacle at 3, 9, 6.7, and 6.7 inches. 15.3%+1.1%+2.1%+2.1%=20.6% total chance of a mishap. So let's look back at the first placement. When we were 6 inches away there was a 26% chance of a mishap, but now that we're 3 inches away we only have a 20.6% chance of a mishap! It's not a whole lot safer, but knowing that I can be closer to my target and have less of a chance of a mishap is win win!
So to conclude, deep striking is much safer in 6th edition due to the new mishap table. in addition, we can see that you don't have to place your deep strikers 12 inches away from everything to have a relatively safe drop. You can drop your units in just 4" from the enemy and still have only a 12.7% chance of a mishap. I would say that this risk is definitely worth being closer to the enemy. More weapons are in range and it is much more likely that you will be able to assault the next turn to keep the enemy from being able to shoot you.
I hope this was helpful to some of you. Let me know if you have any other strategies for deep striking. thanks for reading!